Rocket Lab's Future Under Trump

Overview

Rocket Lab (RKLB) future under the incoming Trump administration is strong based on industry interviews on the president-elect’s choice as a new head of NASA.

Many of these entrepreneurs believe a new era in the space and aeronautics industry is in-front of us. I share their optimism.

Trump's Choice for Space Agency

Early this month, President-elect Donald Trump announced the appointment of Jared Isaacman, a commercial astronaut and billionaire entrepreneur, as the lead of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The 41-year-old, who will succeed a former politician, is an unusual choice for many since he does not come from NASA or from any government office. According to a report, NASA leaders are typically engineers, academics, politicians or scientists. Jared is an unconventional person to hold the spot. That doesn’t mean he will be ineffective.

Isaacman founded Draken International, a provider of tactical fighter aircraft for military and defense industry customers in 2012. He’s also a flight-qualified pilot in various military jet aircraft, commanded the 2021 human spaceflight Inspiration4 that was operated by SpaceX, and just recently led the Polaris Dawn mission in September of this year. 

However, his connection with Elon Musk is no secret. Isaacman’s partnership with SpaceX stems from his role as a customer and a collaborator. NASA has become more reliant on the commercial sector as more works are contracted out to private companies.

But while the choice may have been unconventional, the industry has so far agreed with the President-elect’s decision. Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, believes that Isaacman possesses the skills in business, management and technical that the office needs.

On the other hand, Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck is optimistic about the appointment:

“Having an astronaut run a space agency is a great thing. You have to have a deep understanding of the industry. Having a passionate person heading up the agency is a positive thing.”

Elon Musk’s Role

Musk (founder of SpaceX) is expected to co-lead the Department of Government Efficiency to reduce what many see as excessive spending in the government, according to reports. But the appointment of Isaacman has sparked controversy that Musk’s SpaceX will be favored when awarding multi-million-dollar contracts.

SpaceX’s competitors, however, are undeterred and less worried. CEO Beck said: 

“I can’t imagine that all those conflict rules and processes that have been longstanding and part of the fabric of US democracy are going to get ignored,” he said. “In some respects, it might not look great on paper but I trust in the system that any conflicts will be controlled.”

Jeff Bezos, whose Blue Origin is also a major player in the industry, likewise Bezo’s firm has also downplayed any concerns of bias against his company once Isaacman gets confirmed by the US Senate despite Isaacman’s scathing remark in October about NASA’s decision to award a second Artemis Human Landing System to Bezo’s company after previously selecting SpaceX.

Rocket Lab Benefit from Trump

CEO Breck has every reason to feel less concerned about a possible conflict of interest when Isaacman assumes his post. Although Rocket Lab has fewer launches compared to SpaceX, the entire industry will most likely benefit from the new administration.

For instance, he believes that NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) is “outrageously expensive but tolerable” after a series of delays and a ballooning budget. The SLS is supposed to launch astronauts from Earth before moving into a lunar lander to reach the moon’s surface.

NASA will also be considering potential restructuring of their priorities and funding. The agency already depends on SpaceX for crew transportation to and from the International Space Station (ISS) and has entrusted the company with safely deorbiting the ISS in the 2030s. SpaceX's Starship, currently under development, is a key element in NASA's future Artemis missions, serving as the primary vehicle for transporting astronauts to and from the lunar surface.

During his campaign, Trump vowed that he will support missions to Mars in his second term. and it will not only benefit Musk this time around. Rocket Lab’s work with NASA may be on a relatively smaller scale than SpaceX but these are critical. Rocket Lab recently delivered two spacecraft for a NASA mission to Mars. In October, they announced a NASA contract to complete a study for a Martian sample-return mission.

Risk

One of the risks involved in this case is if the administration favors Musk’s company over the smaller players in the business. This will put an end to the trust and confidence that Bezos and CEO Beck have accorded the incoming administration.

However, Rocket Lab will also have more opportunities to scale with the $23.9 million CHIPS deal it secured from the outgoing Biden administration’s Commerce Department. This will expand production of space-grade solar cells in their facility in Albuquerque, New Mexico and ensure that they can still attract high-level contracts from NASA.

In essence, while Musk & Co will have a huge influence on the next administration, odds are this will not affect Rocket Lab’s ability to grow.

Bottom Line

President-elect Donald Trump has appointed billionaire entrepreneur Jared Isaacman, a commercial astronaut and SpaceX collaborator, as NASA's new head. Isaacman, known for commanding SpaceX's Inspiration4 and Polaris Dawn missions, marks a departure from traditional NASA leadership. Industry leaders support his business, technical, and management skills, with Rocket Lab’s CEO optimistic about the appointment.

With this, I too am confident that Rocket Lab has a brighter future ahead. Politics aside, space and rocketry as a whole has limitless potential over the next 4 years. The industry was set to boom regardless of who won. This should accelerate growth further.